Any Peer Competitors Out There. An Economic Perspective to the Growth of Potential Peer Competitors

摘要

This paper attempts to determine whether or not a peer competitor nation will arise within the next 25 years by examining a nation's potential for economic growth. An econometric model is used to assist in the formulation of this forecast. This model develops a linear regression to relate national indicators such as levels of investment, population growth, education and energy production to gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The use of the model is limited to that of 'bracketing' possible rates of GDP growth. Using this model, China's potential for reaching peer status is examined in detail. Through this examination it is determined that China does not have the potential to reach peer competitor status within the next 25 years. China faces too many obstacles in terms of developing its energy production infrastructure and providing the necessary means to stop the erosion of its environment. These tasks will necessitate the investment of large sums of money which will compete with investments into the commercial and industrial sectors. As such, it is unlikely that China will accelerate its rate of GDP growth to levels above the phenomenal growth rates that it experienced during the decade 1980-1990. Plausible rates of growth will not support the build-up of a military force which could present itself as a peer competitor to the forces of the United States.