Forecasting Market Index Performance Using Population Demographics

摘要

This study attempted to verify claims made by forecaster Harry S. Dent, Jr. Itutilized regression analysis in order to determine the correlation between the number of births and the closings on a market index with a specified lag between the input and output variables. While the research was able to develop a model with the factor Dent considers the most important, the predictions based on this model did not completely coincide with the forecasts Dent makes. Furthermore, the research could not confirm the accentuation Dent places on a 46-year lag between predictor and response variables. As an extension, scenarios for Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany were examined. This analysis could not confirm the hypothesized extension of Dent's theory to other countries.