Projections of Expenditures for Long-Term Care Services for the Elderly.

摘要

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) expects national expenditures for long-term care services for the elderly (people ages 65 and older) to grow each year through 2040. The main reason for that growth is that the U.S. population is aging, and elderly people receive the most long-term care services because they are far more likely than younger people to have some kind of functional limitation. In 1993, for example, people 65 years of age and older accounted for almost three-quarters of all long-term care spending. The large number of baby boomers will begin to reach age 65 in 2011, swelling the ranks of the elderly. In addition, more elderly people will reach advanced ages (85 and older) than in the past because of declining mortality rates. Those trends will cause the proportion of the population that is elderly, which was just under 13 percent in 1995, to rise to 20 percent in 2040. More important, the population over age 85-the segment most likely to require long-term care will grow to over three times its current size by 2040. Even though reductions in the age-specific prevalence of functional disability will offset some of the demand for long-term care, overall demand will still rise substantially.