Method and Process for the Creation of Modeling and Simulation Tools for Human Crowd Behavior.

摘要

Commanders need tools for planning, decision support, and analysis related to crowd management with non-lethal weapons. This problem requires predictive crowd modeling and simulation tools for forecasting human behavior. The Target Behavioral Response Laboratory (TBRL) has worked to develop new methods to provide modeling and simulation operational planning tools to provide commanders with the capability to predict crowd response to military control force tactics, techniques, and procedures. The TBRL has developed processes based on behavioral science experimental methods and objective measurements under controlled conditions. These methods and measures include motion capture of subjects in a laboratory environment to derive coefficients for equations which quantitatively model a crowd's behavior, which are can be validated at more than one point in the process. This technique can model a crowd's path deviation response to different weapon, device, or control force emplacements as the crowd moves towards an objective of positive valence, which might aid a commander in choosing and positioning those weapons. The TBRL has gathered a large data set from a variety of human crowd experiments using non-lethal energies and devices to determine effectiveness. These data serve as the input and validation tools for model building. The process comprises of several modules that work together to produce simulated data for crowd locomotive behavior; estimating crowd responses to several non-lethal technologies and their surrogates. The process yields models that accurately estimate crowd behavior for baseline and a Medium Range Acoustic Device condition and partially estimates crowd behavioral response for area denial technology (ADT) and hand-held standoff non-lethal weapons. Building on human behavioral data allows the model to capture the behaviors, range, variability, probability, and uncertainty, the dynamic nature of human behaviors.