Protecting the United States Against Terrorist Nuclear Attacks: A System of Systems Approach

摘要

A nuclear attack using unconventional means of delivery within the United States remains a very low probability, very high consequence event that is extremely difficult to defend against. In the absence of effective countermeasures, the probability is likely to increase over time, as the technology for making nuclear weapons becomes more accessible. Two other elements of the threat -- access to nuclear materials and expertise, and motivations to attack -- are amenable to influence. Studies have concluded that there are no individual measures that could be conceived and developed that could provide a highly effective defense. In the absence of a vastly increased public perception of the threat of attack, significantly increased funding is unlikely to become available to solve this problem. A reasonable approach is to construct a system of systems (i.e., a coherent array of existing, improved, and new measures that address all elements of all threat paths). The system would be designed to deter through likely denial of success of a very costly operation, coupled with the imposition of retribution and other consequences. This approach makes sense only as long as nuclear weapons remain extremely rare and costly items to potential attackers. The system can be thought of as having three dimensions: (1) basic design and system elements; (2) overall plan for management and organization; and (3) plans for evolution of the system, including identification of needs, research, development, and acquisition. This report concentrates on the first. The general structure of the system should mirror the threat paths, which consist of three basic elements: obtaining a weapon, bringing it to the United States, and using it to cause great damage. System elements will generally consist of the following: (1) controlling the supply side, (2) impeding transportation, and (3) reducing vulnerabilities to attack and freedom of perpetrators to move weapons within the United States.