U.S. National Security Strategy - The Magnitude of Second and Third- Order Effects on Smaller Nations: The Cases of Lebanon During the Cold War and Pakistan During the Global War on Terrorism

摘要

After World War II, America was forced to reevaluate its prewar continentalist vision of security strategy. A globalist consensus soon emerged as the United States found itself in a position similar to Great Britain in 1815. As U.S. grand strategy became more formal and the realities of the Cold War set in, America's leadership began to meet the Soviet challenge on all levels of national power. The resultant Cold War security strategy forged new alliances and in some cases pressured relatively neutral countries into making tough decisions. A country's willingness to sign up to a U.S.-led security strategy could ultimately weaken its own political stability in a domestic as well as regional context. The global nature of American foreign policy and how it is perceived by smaller nations is the impetus for many of the second-order effects and consequences associated with foreign policy choices. In many cases these devastating effects are predictable, but are nonetheless deemed acceptable when placed within the larger scheme of international relations. Some may argue that the outcomes are justified for their service to the common good of the international community. This paper examines the security strategy of the United States during the Cold War as well as the contemporary setting of the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT). Within this context, the paper argues that the second-order effects of U.S. Cold War strategy experienced by Lebanon in the 195Os ultimately contributed to the root causes of its Civil War in 1958. Similarly, the paper looks to present-day security strategies wed to the GWOT and suggests how second-order effects may lead to equally disastrous consequences for Pakistan. To what degree should the United States concern itself with these effects and make a conscious decision to mitigate them before they begin to threaten a smaller country's stability. If ignored, can the escalation of these consequences weaken U.S. security interests in a region. (43 re7).