China's Less Aggressive Approach to Taiwan Reunification: A Change in Strategy or Tactics

摘要

China has a vital national interest in exercising sovereignty over the island of Taiwan. This vital interest is directly linked to political legitimacy for the ruling Chinese Communist Party and is fueled by rising Chinese nationalism. Taiwan meeting all requirements of a sovereign state except international recognition as such has a vital interest in preventing Chinese sovereignty. The stakes in this dispute are enormous for China and Taiwan with the United States caught in the middle. In the 1990s frustrated by Taiwan's failure to enter into reunification negotiations the Chinese used aggressive rhetoric and military exercises to deter Taiwan from a path towards declaring independence. In 1996 to dissuade voters from supporting Taiwanese President Lee Tung-hui in his bid to be Taiwan's first popularly elected president the Chinese conducted missile tests in which missiles with live warheads were fired to points near Taiwan's largest ports. The 1996 missile tests prompted President Clinton to order two carrier battle groups into the Taiwan Strait the 100 mile wide body of ocean separating Taiwan from Mainland China. Lee won the election. In 2000 the Chinese mobilized a portion of the People's Liberation Army threatened military exercises and bombarded Taiwan with aggressive rhetoric to dissuade voters from electing pro-independence candidate Chen Shui-bian as President. Chen won the election. Since mid-2000 however the Chinese have been relatively quiet diplomatically and militarily over the issue of unification with Taiwan. Verbal and press attacks on Taiwanese leaders have been toned down and are directed more at issues than at the leaders personally. Even with the increased tension between China and Taiwan in the lead-up to the March 2004 election China has refrained from conducting coercive military actions.