Fighting in the Gray Zone: A Strategy to Close the Preemption Gap

摘要

The 2002 National Security Strategy (NSS) rightly identified the proliferation, privatization, and acquisition of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) by terrorist groups and rogue states as the critical nontraditional threat of the 21st century. However, the NSS argues that in the 21st century, technology has advanced and become so readily available that we 'must adapt the concept of imminent threat to the capabilities and objectives of today's adversaries.' This reconceptualization of preemption defines the core question- What military strategy is appropriate for using force 'to act against such emerging threats before they are fully formed'. We argue preemption is ill-suited for disrupting the converged threat of terrorists and rogue states pursuing WMD. Instead, we propose that a forcible counterproliferation (FCP) strategy is most effective for fighting in the 'gray zone.' Using the 2002 NSS and the problems associated with justifying the preemptive use of force in Iraq as starting points, we examine three questions: (1) How has the threat environment changed since the end of the Cold War; (2) If there is a new threat environment, what is the appropriate military strategy for that threat; (3) How can the United States justify a new strategy to domestic critics and gain international support.