Emerging Threats and the War on Terrorism: The Formation of Radical Islamist Movements in Sub-Saharan Africa

摘要

Determining the conditions that lead to the formation of radical Islamist groups will help analysts and policymakers prioritize countries within sub-Saharan Africa that may need monitoring to prevent the onset of indigenous terrorism. This thesis attempts to produce knowledge toward that end by determining causal variables hypothesized to be associated with radical Islamist group formation through inductive analysis. A narrative describing the formation of a known Islamist movement in Nigeria is compared against a narrative describing the conditions in Zanzibar, where radical groups have yet to emerge given different structural conditions. The goal of the thesis is to try and generate an initial understanding of the underlying conditions that cause radical group formation to help tailor U.S. policy goals toward fighting radical Islamist group emergence through prevention.