Military Power of the People's Republic of China. A Report to Congress Pursuant to the National Defense Authorization Act, Fiscal Year 2000

摘要

The rapid rise of the People's Republic of China (PRC) as a regional political and economic power with global aspirations is one of the principal elements ill the emergence of East Asia, a region that has changed greatly over the past quarter of a century. China's emergence has significant implications for the region and the world. The United States welcomes the rise of a peaceful and prosperous China, one that becomes integrated as a constructive member of the international community. But, we see a China facing a strategic crossroads. Questions remain about the basic choices China's leaders will make as China's power and influence grow, particularly its military power. The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) is modernizing its forces, emphasizing preparations to fight and win short-duration, high-intensity conflicts along China's periphery. PLA modernization has accelerated since the mid-to-late l990s in response to central leadership demands to develop military options for Taiwan scenarios. In the short term, the PRC appears focused on preventing Taiwan independence or trying to compel Taiwan to negotiate a settlement on Beijing's terms. A second set of objectives includes building counters to third-party, including potential U.S., intervention in cross-Strait crises. PLA preparations, including an expanding force of ballistic missiles (long-range and short-range), cruise missiles, submarines, advanced aircraft, and other modern systems, come against the background of a policy toward Taiwan that espouses 'peaceful reunification.' China has not renounced the use of force, however. Over the long term, if current trends persist, PLA capabilities could pose a credible threat to other modern militaries operating in the region.