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Atmospheric Transport Modeling and Data Fusion in Support of Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Verification

机译:支持全面禁止核试验条约核查的大气输运建模与数据融合

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Waveform signals can be processed to distinguish between explosions and natural events and can help locating explosion centers fast and with high accuracy. However, they cannot be used to demonstrate a possible nuclear nature for the event. This final proof can only be provided by detection of airborne radioactivity downwind of the event. To support the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) based on particulate radionuclide and noble gas monitoring in combination with seismic explosion location results, the Provisional Technical Secretariat (PTS) has developed the Atmospheric Transport Modeling (ATM) software. The software receives as input weather analyses from two world-leading centers (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and US Center for Environmental Prediction) in near-real-time and with high resolution. The PTS then computes, 14 days backward in time, source-receptor sensitivity (SRS) fields for all radionuclide samples taken at its operating and non-operating (future) sites. The diagnostic Lagrangian particle diffusion model FLeXpaRT is utilized as transport code. The code simulates transport and diffusion in inverse (backtracking) mode. The simulated adjoint tracer is released at the exact location of the monitoring site from the end to the start time of the air sampling, and then re-sampled every three hours at the surface level (0-30 m) on a global grid up to 14 days backward. The resulting SRS fields (equivalent to concentration fields in forward simulations) are stored in a database and are available ahead of the measurement results. In case of qualified events, the PTS will have the opportunity to request SRS fields from all Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs) of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

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