Strategic Implications of Japan Amending Its Constitution

摘要

At the end of World War II, Japan adopted a Constitution that forever renounced the 'threat or use of force as a means of settling international disputes.' This Constitution has resulted in Japan fully relying on the United States to preserve peace in the region. On the surface, the notion of Japan removing the 'no war' clause from its Constitution seems to be in the best interests of the United States. If Japan developed a bona fide military, however, the United States would be faced with a decision as to what military forces should remain in country. Additionally, if Japan rescinded its 'no war' clause and established a military, there would undoubtedly be a reaction from China, the traditional hegemon of the region. This paper begins by providing a history of Japan's Constitution and the country's resultant foreign policy decisions. Then, through the use of a scenario matrix, the paper examines the strategic implications of Japan adopting a new Constitution. The matrix has two variables: (1) Chinese reaction to Japan revising its Constitution, and (2) United States force structure in Asia as a result of the new Constitution. The paper concludes with a recommendation for Japan's national security strategy based on Constitutional revision.