China: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030. Geopolitical Implications

摘要

Following the publication in 2008 of the National Intelligence Assessment, National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) embarked on a research effort to explore in greater detail the national security implications of climate change in six countries/regions of the world: India, China, Russia, North Africa, Mexico and the Caribbean, and Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island states. In April 2009, CENTRA Technology, Inc., convened a group of regional experts to explore the socio-political challenges, civil and key interest group responses, government responses, and regional and geopolitical implications of climate change on China through 2030. The group of outside experts consisted of social scientists, economists, and political scientists. Although the targeted time frame of the analysis was to 2030, the perceptions of decisionmakers in 2030 will be colored by expectations about the relative severity of climate changes projected later in the century. The participants accordingly considered climate impacts beyond 2030 where appropriate. The panelists judged that China has a robust capacity to handle the large-scale disruptions that probably will be caused by climate change and that China's trajectory of continued growth is likely to further increase its resilience through 2030. Beyond 2030 the ability for the state to respond is more problematic. In addition to domestic challenges, the trans-border impact of China's environmental problems could lead to increased political tensions, regional economic disruptions, and deterioration in the quality of life for hundreds of millions in the region.