F-22 versus UCAV: Fixing Today's Deficiencies Leaves Questions about Tomorrow's Dominance

摘要

This thesis evaluates the U.S. Government's decision to end F-22 production and shift procurement toward first-generation Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAV). Since September 11, 2001, the U.S. military has been in a constant asymmetric battle with violent extremists. UCAVs, like the MQ-1 and MQ- 9, have provided a persistent air power presence and have grown in popularity because of their low cost and versatility. At the same time, the F-22 has seen no direct combat action, and has been characterized by cost overruns and significantly overwhelming capabilities. The question addressed in this thesis is as follows: Has this shift in procurement to solve current irregular warfare deficiencies introduced issues concerning the U.S. Air Force's (USAF) dominance in the future. Chapter 2 presents an analysis of the defense spending trends of the primary military powers to help define the security environment the USAF must prepare for in the near future. The United States and the European Union will represent defense spending in the West while Russia and the People's Republic of China will represent defense spending in the East. Chapter 3 presents an analysis of the advantages of both manned and unmanned systems to shed light on the draw toward unmanned flight in future aircraft procurement. Chapter 4 provides an effectiveness comparison between the F-22 and UCAVs using four fundamentals of aircraft effectiveness: reliability, survivability, availability, and versatility. The final chapter contains conclusions and recommendations. The authors conclude that the decision to shut down production of the F-22 and ramp up procurement of UCAVs addresses today's deficiencies in irregular warfare, but as an unintended consequence it reduces the current and future ability of the USAF to protect the United States and its interests abroad across the full spectrum of potential threats.