Bayesian Hierarchical Models to Augment the Mediterranean Forecast System Consolidating Results and Quantifying Impacts

摘要

The long term goal of this interdisciplinary research program continues to be the demonstration of Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) utility in several aspects of operational ocean forecasting. The specific goals in the current phase of the research are: 1) publications of results from ensemble ocean forecast experiments driven by the surface vector wind (SVW) BHM; b) consolidating impacts results in MFS reforecast experiments for the time- dependent error-covariance BHM; and c) running the first multi-model and multi- parameter super-ensemble BHM experiments.