U.S. Footprint on the Arabian Peninsula: Can We Avoid a Repeat of the Pullout from Saudi Arabia

摘要

This thesis seeks to identify a means for achieving equilibrium between U.S. requirements for a military presence in the Persian Gulf and increasingly negative domestic perceptions of U.S. foreign policies from the societies, religious establishments, and governing bodies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Historical research explains the dynamics of U.S. relationships with its GCC partners. The U.S.-Saudi Arabia relationship has, by far, the most history and the strongest ties based on mutual economic and security interests. While the United States and Saudi Arabia still enjoy a relatively amenable relationship, increasingly negative perceptions of the United States by Saudi society and its clerical establishment threaten to continue undermining the prosperous bilateral relations the two countries once shared. These same tensions resonate throughout the Gulf and adversely affect other bilateral relationships the United States shares with GCC countries. This thesis argues that a U.S. footprint in a GCC state will succeed or fail based on the degree to which the state exhibits the following characteristics: centrality of power, susceptibility to manipulation from religious establishments, and level to which the state relies on oil to support its gross domestic product. The author uses the case study method to compare the outcomes of a U.S. footprint in three GCC countries: Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Oman. All three countries have comparable political systems, economies, and religious institutions. The Saudi Arabia case study focuses on the undesirable agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia to withdraw U.S. military forces from Saudi territory in 2003. In contrast, the Bahrain case illuminates a comparatively successful bilateral security arrangement. The Oman case study evaluates the prospect for a more substantive bilateral security arrangement that includes long-term access to military basing.