Comparison of Data Used to Establish Intra-plant Distance Tables to Predictive Models

摘要

Nearly 100 explosives events that occurred at the turn of the 20th century have been compared to the predictions of explosion consequence models. Events and data used for the establishment of the original Institute of Makers of Explosives' Intra-plant Distance Tables were simulated in the computer models IMESAFR, and DIRE. Scenarios with over 500 individuals exposed inside K40 in were replicated in the models. The data were separated into open, not open, barricaded, and unbarricaded scenarios. Comparisons of the models' predictions to the results of the actual events indicate that the models are typically conservative, but more or less within an order of magnitude depending on the scenario. Relevance of the nearly 100 year-old data and potential improvements for the models are discussed.