Back to the Future: How a Look Back at Cold War Naval Doctrine can Inform Operational Planning for U.S.-PRC Maritime Conflict

摘要

Whether or not it is likely that the United States will be required to defend Taiwan from Chinese coercion, U.S. law requires that our armed forces maintain the capacity to do so. In order to see around Chinese opacity regarding maritime doctrine and planning, an analysis of U.S. and Soviet Cold War naval doctrine, along with an assessment of what the results of a U.S.- Soviet maritime conflict might have been, can provide lessons learned regarding Cold War operational planning and doctrinal interactions. Given strong Soviet influences on the development of the People's Republic of China's (PRC) maritime doctrine and the use by the PRC of large numbers of Russian-built or Russian-derived platforms and weapons, these indirect insights can then inform U.S. operational planning for a potential future maritime conflict with the PRC. This paper provides recommendations for operational commanders to consider in planning for a potential U.S.-PRC maritime conflict, and asks still- unanswered questions inspired by aspects of Soviet doctrine that point to 'unknown unknowns' in our knowledge of PRC naval doctrine and planning.