China's Oil Security Pipe Dream: The Reality, and Strategic Consequences, of Seaborne Imports

摘要

Between now and 2025 the world's major economies will likely still depend to a large degree on traditional energy sources. Oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are the two with inherent naval significance, as they must be transported by sea to the extent that domestic supplies or overland pipelines are insufficient. Indeed, maritime transport is almost always significantly cheaper than any overland alternatives. Private-sector analysts have produced detailed forecasts of supply and demand for these two critical commodities. But no researchers have yet produced a detailed study of the strategic and naval implications of Chinese energy access. The market focus of energy intelligence firms and the lack of security and technical information informing journalists in the energy field have so far precluded analysis of the issue. The National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2025 report 'projects a still-preeminent U.S. joined by fast developing powers, notably India and China, atop a multipolar international system' that 'will be subject to an increased likelihood of conflict over scarce resources'-one of them being energy. This article assesses the relative dependence of China (as a consumer) on seaborne oil flows between now and 2025. China is now the world's second-largest oil user. It now imports half of its crude oil. Seaborne imports, which overland pipelines will not reduce, constitute more than 80 percent of this total. China's oil security concerns will help shape its military and policy priorities fundamentally, with significant implications for the U.S. Navy in coming years. Chinese security analysts and policy makers worry about their nation's 'excessive' reliance on seaborne oil shipments. For the present, it underscores a question of fundamental importance concerning China's strategic orientation: To what extent will China seek to transform itself from a continental to a continental-maritime power.