Probability Model for a Convoy Threatened by a Submarine Launched Missile

摘要

The advent of the missile firing submarine has added yet another dimension to the problem of defending convoys and task groups during ocean transit. The specific situation wherein the submarine must surface to fire a relatively short range missile against a convoy of ships is considered. The model developed considers several different problem parameters. It enables the calculation of probability of detection of the submarine, probability of killing the submarine before a particular missile is fired, and the expected number of missiles that the submarine will fire. Selected results from randomly selected parameter values are also presented. (Author)