Validation of an Expert Estimate Technique for Predicting Manpower, Maintenance, and Training Requirements for Proposed Air Force Systems.

摘要

The objectives were to determine the validity of an expert estimate technique for predicting manpower, maintenance, and training requirements for equipment in the early stages of design, and to develop a guide for implementing the technique. Sixty Air Force technicians from two avionics AFSCs participated as expert estimators. Twenty of these technicians were also qualified avionics instructors. The 60 technicians made estimates of manpower, maintenance, and training requirements using only an engineering description of an operational avionics component. The description contained information available during the early design stages of the component. The accuracy of the estimates was determined by comparing them with manpower, maintenance, and training data associated with the operational equipment. The results indicate that maintenance task time, crew size, skill level, career field, and task difficulty can be estimated with a satisfactory degree of accuracy. Training times were greatly overestimated. The estimates of required training facilities/equipment and the impact of design features on maintenance were nonconclusive. The results also indicate that ten technicians with skill level 5 and with system experience on equipment similar to the proposed equipment will produce acceptable estimates. A prototype guide for using the technique was prepared. (Author)