Domestic & International Air Cargo Activity: National and Selected Hub Forecasts

摘要

This report presents new TSC domestic and international air cargo models developed in FY79 and alternative forecasts for domestic and international air cargo activity from 1979 to 1991. All forecasting models for air cargo activity have been estimated with alternative functional forms. A corrected functional form is chosen based on the Box-Cox transformation technique and our prior knowledge about the future possible behavior of air cargo traffic. The forecasting model for international air cargo activity includes 24 regression equations. These equations have been estimated with time series data from 1964 to 1977. In comparison with previous TSC models, the major improvement of this revised model is the construction of price proxy variables for each of the six world regions. Regression results indicate that most co-efficients of the revised price proxy variable have the expected signs and are statistically significant.