Air Force Personnel Availabilty Analysis: Application Techniques of the Personnel Availability Model (PAM)

摘要

This is the second of three technical reports describing a methodology for projecting the future availability of Air Force personnel and analyzing the potential impacts of personnel policy changes. Developed within the Air Force Human Resources Laboratory's Project 1959, 'Advanced System for the Human Resources Support of Weapon System Development,' the methodology will provide the Air Force with an increased capability for considering the human resources requirements of weapon systems in terms of the future availability of personnel for maintaining and operating the systems and the factors which determine their availability. Technical report AFHRL-TR-79-66 documents the development of the methodology for a computerized Personnel Availability Model (PAM) and its associated data bank. This report describes application techniques of the PAM Technical report AFHRL-TR-79-68 provides a program description which includes an applied PAM analysis of Air Force personnel. The PAM represents career transition activity within the Air Force according to a series of Markov processes. Each process depicts a subpopulation of airmen with states defined by year of service (YOS) and paygrade. The PAM uses a mathematical Markov model to project future personnel availability. It assumes that, in respect to career transition, the population of technical personnel is homogeneous within the Air Force. This report describes the results of the effort undertaken to check the validity of the Markov model approach to Air Force personnel availability analysis and also that of the homogeneity assumption.