A Method for Calculating Industrial Mobilization Requirements Which Incorporates Production Process Times. Volume II. Appendices.

摘要

This paper presents a new economic model for assessing the industrial requirements generated by increased production for defense during a mobilization or due to a surge in requirements during peacetime. The model's procedure combines an input-output analysis of the direct and indirect requirements associated with defense production with information on processing times in each industry. In this way, one can determine not only the magnitude of production surges but also the time of peak activity in each industrial sector. The model is used to simulate increases of 50 to 200 percent in the level of overall defense spending. Two sorts of bottlenecks are identified--the first involving industries where peak requirements exceed capacity and the second, where cumulated processing times exceed the preparation period envisioned in the scenario.