Strategic Environment in East Asia and U.S.-Korean Security Relations in the 1980s

摘要

This Note assesses the likely influence of the evolving strategic environment in East Asia on U.S.-Korean security relations for the remainder of the 1980s. To assess this influence, the Note briefly examines recent trends in several areas: (1) the great power military balance, the Soviet military buildup in the Far East, and Soviet policies toward the Korean peninsula; (2) the vagaries of the Sino-Soviet split and US-USSR-PRC triangular relations; (3) the character of the Japanese-American relationship and the nature of the role of Japan; and (4) the evolving political, economic, and military situations in North and South Korea. On the basis of this examination, the Note fashions a number of propositions concerning the likely future evolution of the strategic environment in East Asia, assesses their implications for U.S.-Korean security relations, and suggests several issues for future consideration. The principal conclusions are that the heightened geo-strategic importance of the Far East to the Soviet Union and its continuing military buildup will create the need for compensatory actions by the United States and its allies; the continued reliance on a 'swing strategy' by the United States for guaranteeing regional security will become increasingly risky; the likely evolution of Sino-Soviet relations will limit the ability of the United States to interest China in significantly expanded security cooperation and make the task of maintaining security in the region more complex; and the recent trends in several important areas in North and South Korea will increase the possibility for destabilizing developments on the Korean peninsula for the remainder of the 1980s. Issues for future consideration include deterrence vis-a-vis North Korea, the appropriate military strategy for dealing with the North Korean threat, measures for moderating North Korea's behavior, and the role of Japan in Korea's defense.