Civilian Manpower Planning Model for Scientific and Engineering Personnel in the Navy R&D Centers

摘要

To assess the effect of high-grade limitations on the attrition rate, it is necessary to measure the quantitative response of attrition to promotion opportunity. Also, a civilian manpower planning model is needed to assess the impacts of alternative manpower policies on the scientific and engineering (S&E) personnel structure and flows in Navy R&D centers. The purpose of this effort was to develop a manpower planning model to project the effect of high-grade limitations on Navy R&D centers. The number of S&E vacancies in the Navy R&D centers is affected by a variety of personnel flows, including the number of accessions, voluntary quits, promotions, and retirements. Changes in Navy personnel policies, among other factors, affect personnel flows that, in turn, affect the age and grade structures of S&E professionals. Therefore, policy variables were included in developing the manpower planning model. The techniques used in this effort include probability and ratio estimation and regression analysis. A civilian manpower planning model was developed to forecast professional personnel flows and levels in the Navy R&D centers. The model provides alternative projections by age and grade based on various policy scenarios. The civilian manpower planning model developed can be used to assist the offices of the Assistant Secretary of the Navy and the Chief of Naval Material in evaluating the effect of high-grade ceilings on the capability of Navy R&D centers.