Objective Forecasts for Solar Flares Using Multivariate Discriminant Analysis

摘要

Solar parameters derived from the Region Analysis Program are submitted to a multivariate discriminant analysis (MVDA) in which the parameters relevant to flare prediction are identified and incorporated in a classification procedure to produce a flare forecast. The analysis uses two years of data (3732 solar active region days). The MVDA forecast is compared with a subjective forecast derived from the NOAA forecast during the same period, and is found to be somewhat superior overall. Specific recommendations are made concerning the application of the technique in a forecasting operation. Keywords: Solar flares; Multivariate Discriminant Analysis; Reprints.