Mathematical Model for Calculating Non-Detection Probability of a Random Tour Target

摘要

The primary objective of this thesis was to build a mathematical model to predict the probability of a target moving according to a two-dimensional random tour model avoiding detection (i.e., surviving) to some specified time, t. This model assumes that there is a stationary searcher having a 'cookie-cutter' sensor located in the center of the search area. A Monte-Carlo simulation computer program was used to generate the non-detection probabilities. The output of this program was used to construct the required mathematical model. The model predicts, and simulation supports, that as the mean segment length of the random tour becomes small with respect to the square root of the area size, the probability of non-detection approaches that previously obtained for a diffusing target. In the opposite extreme, the probability of non-detection approaches the general form of Koopman's random search formula. Keywords: Diffusion; RATSIM Computer program; FORTRAN; RATSIM (Random Tour Simulation). (Author)