Smart Voyage Planning Model Sensitivity Analysis Using Ocean and Atmospheric Models Including Ensemble Methods.

摘要

Smart Voyage Planning (SVP) has been identified as a key technology for the US Navy, capable of assisting with the fleet energy saving goals of Secretary of the Navy (SECNAV) and the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO). Commercial SVP tools use weather, waves, and specific ship platform characteristic data to develop optimal transit routes that save on the order of 5% in fuel expenditures. Sensitivity analysis was conducted utilizing a Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) industry standard SVP model. Model inputs used for sensitivity included ensemble techniques, ship class specific characteristics, and simulated enhanced environmental model outputs. Variances in predicted route costs compared to route costs using actual analysis environmental data and Great Circle baseline references were studied. Significant efforts focused on developing analysis tools to determine how uncertainty and sensitivity could be communicated. The analysis identified significant SVP model sensitivities to: geographic location; direction; seasonal synoptic weather; hull/propulsion type and condition; route length; specific model improvements; and ensemble post-processing methods. An SVP trial was also conducted at sea onboard USS PRINCETON (CG-59) with goals of Concept of Operations (CONOPS) development and determining types of operations that could affect a combatant vessel's ability to execute SVP routes. Important lessons learned, best practices, and recommendations were identified during this operational trial.