How Numerical Model Diagnostics Can, With Satellite Imagery, Help the Forecaster Understand the Controlling Physical Processes and Predict Evolution

摘要

Rather than review the published literature on these topics, two approaches being researched by the authors are summarized. Both approaches build upon the well-known fact that shapes of large-scale patterns of clouds associated with cyclones, pressure troughs, jet streams, and fronts can generally be related rather well to certain kinematic and dynamic parameters of the wind field. One section of this paper describes efforts to improve this type of conceptual/diagnostic model and, in particular, to relate the details of the cloud and weather patterns to details of the wind field as determined through time-space conversion of rawinsonde and wind-profiler data. A second approach seeks to identify certain cyclone-relative patterns of systematic errors in the forecasts of operational numerical models. Compilation of these error patterns, and use of them as empirical correction factors, can yield improved forecasts of patterns of clouds and weather. Reprints (FR)