Civilization's Drying Cradle: Water Politics in the Tigris-Euphrates River Basin.

摘要

The finite water supply of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers is increasingly out of balance with the demands of Turkey, Syria, and Iraq. Turkey's Southeast Anatolia Development Project (GAP), which will eventually include 22 dams and 19 hydroelectric plants in the upper Tigris-Euphrates basin, gives Turkey tremendous ability to control both rivers, and provides significant political and economic influence over Syria and Iraq. The countries have failed to reach a water-sharing agreement, and Turkish and Syrian stockpiling to fill reservoirs nearly led to military conflicts with Iraq in 1974 and 1990. Recent drought-induced low river flows have led to accusations that Turkey is holding back more than its fair share of water. This paper details the nature of water shortages in the Tigris and Euphrates basin; discusses relationships between upstream-downstream riparian states; analyzes whether international water laws are sufficiently developed to influence Turkey, Syria, and Iraq toward a long-term solution; explains the importance of a U.S. role in the matter; and presents policy options for promoting equitable water- sharing among these states. From its position of strength, Turkey is unlikely to make meaningful concessions on water sharing without application of significant external diplomatic pressure, economic incentives, and concessions from Syria and Iraq. The United States has an opportunity to use diplomacy and incentives to move Turkey, Syria, and Iraq toward a long term water-sharing agreement, to promote regional stability, and to maintain the political and economic viability of the three countries. Lastly, the paper describes steps Iraq must take to improve its water security, with or without a water-sharing agreement with Turkey and Syria.