Forecasting 24 and 48 Hour Intensity Changes, for Northwestern Pacific Tropical Cyclones, Using Satellite Imagery.

摘要

Sixteen years of typhoon data were studied, in an effort to develop a technique for forecasting tropical cyclone intensity changes in the Northwestern Pacific. The data base provided average changes for 24 and 48 hour periods along with the average duration of each phase (intensifying and dissipating). Further study revealed that the upper-level outflow patterns provide a means to adjust these average changes so a more realistic forecast could be generated for the individual storms. Forecasts were further improved by studying how land and other environmental features effect the life cycle of tropical cyclones. Results from the research were compiled and incorporated into a series of flow charts. These charts were created to enable individuals to quickly determine future intensities of cyclones given the storm's history and a current satellite picture. (emk)