Field Measurement and Model Evaluation Program for Assessment of theEnvironmental Effects of Military Smokes. Evaluation of Atmospheric Dispersion Models for Smoke Dispersion

摘要

Three Gaussian-puff dispersion models (the BEAR, INPUFF and RIMPUFF Models) aretested with field data from the Atterbury-87 smoke dispersion field study. The BEAR, INPUFF, and RIMPUFF models are similar in their basic treatment of transport and dispersion, but differ in implementation. These three were chosen because they represent the state of the art of models available for general use. The INPUFF-ON predictions are consistently better than the predictions of the other three models (BEAR, INPUFF-PG and RIMPUFF) and are within a factor of two of the data values 38 % of the time and within a factor of ten 83 % of the time. By contrast the other three models predict within a factor of two 24 % of the time and within a factor of ten 67 % of the time. The predictions are consistent for the fog-oil and HC trials for the best performing model, INPUFF-ON. However, for the other models, the predictions for the fog-oil trials are somewhat better than for the HC trials. The comparisons also reveal that the models incorrectly predict the decay of concentration with distance from the source, a result which we attribute to the effect of the rising centerline under convective conditions. It is noted that the meteorological and source data which serve as inputs to the models and the concentration data to which the model predictions are compared both contain considerable experimental uncertainty. Thus, although the models can be significantly improved in many respects, their current performance must be viewed in the proper light. smoke, screening smoke, obscuring smoke, hexachloroethane, dispersion modeling, computer modeling.