Predicting Actions Taken to Counter Economic Sanctions: An Examination of U.S.Government Financial Data Collection and Its Usefulness in Determining if Foreign Governments Anticipate Economic Sanctions: A Case Study of Iraq

摘要

Economic sanctions have been a long-standing strategic policy instrument used bythe United States. While much research has been conducted on the effectiveness of sanctions, little has been written on whether governments anticipate economic sanctions and take measures to protect assets held in foreign countries. Using Iraq as a case study, this thesis uses publicly available U.S. Government-collected information to track the flow of financial data within the United States to determine if it is possible to identify events which may indicate that a country is attempting to protect its foreign assets in anticipation of economic sanctions. The thesis concludes that Iraq did not anticipate U.S. imposed economic sanctions prior to invading Kuwait in August 1990, and that financial data collected by various U.S. Government agencies are not particularly useful in conducting timely financial flow analysis.