Quantitative Weather Impacts: An Integrated Weather Effects Decision Aid Impact Magnitude Gradation Scheme and Friendly Versus Threat Delta Advantage.

摘要

A fielded, rules-based weather effects decision support tool (DST) is limited in the detail of its display and the means by which it assesses the severity of the meteorological impacts. A prototype DST is described in this report that: (1) adds significant granularity to the weather impacts display; (2) accounts for the magnitude of the forecast weather parameters; and (3) allows for a quantitative comparison between friendly and enemy forces as to which side will be most impacted by adverse weather conditions. Currently, the rule impacts (favorable, marginal, or unfavorable) used by the Integrated Weather Effects Decision Aid (IWEDA) are shown on color-coded (green/yellow/red) weather effects matrices and map overlays. Transitions between these coarse-granularity, color-coded impacts are set up as step functions that do not portray a continuum of values, as would be expected in real-atmosphere transitions. Impacts rules are essentially equally-weighted and entirely system/sub-system/ component-oriented, affording the commander no options to adjust for specific mission needs. No distinction is made in the impacts display for how many rules fired, with only the single, worst case bubbling-up to be displayed; nor is any adjustment made to account for how greatly the threshold values were exceeded. The goal of the Quantitative Weather Impacts project is to develop a series of interrelated methodologies, including Cell Impact Scores, a Parameter Weighting Scheme, and an Impact Magnitude Gradation Scheme, which will enable quantitative and highly granular weather impacts to be computed and displayed. Also, there is presently no quantitative means of assessing Friendly and Threat weather impacts concurrently using the IWEDA system. Manual comparisons between separate IWEDA runs are qualitative, time-consuming, difficult to visualize, and possibly inaccurate. Ultimately these new methodologies will enable an automated assessment of which force on the battlefield holds.