Implications of Third World Ballistic Missile Strategies and Operations forSDIO/POET: Planning Dilemmas, Warhead Tradeoffs, and Countermeasures Acquisition

摘要

This document, prepared for the Countermeasures Office of the Strategic DefenseInitiative Organization (SDIO) and the Threat Working Group of the Phase One Engineering Team (POET), presents five separate discussions on how Third World militaries face planning dilemmas, warhead tradeoffs, potential difficulties in the incorporation and acquisition of countermeasures, and the consequences of those counters for ATBM/BMD systems. A sixth section summarizes the strategic implications of the foregoing five papers. The first study establishes that a dilemma exists with respect to many Third World countries' decisions to acquire ballistic missiles or long-range strike aircraft to perform cost/operationally effective deep-strike missions. The second study expands on yet another dilemma faced by Third World countries once they acquire ballistic missiles: what kinds of warheads to acquire and utilize. The Third and fourth studies examine how Third World countries, once they obtain ballistic missiles, might acquire, evaluate, and incorporate countermeasures into their ballistic missile systems. The fifth study examines the strategic implications of incorporating ATBM/BMD countermeasures in future Third World ballistic missiles. These studies demonstrate how Third World countries have an array of important decisions involving the acquisition, improvement, adaptation, and eventual use of ballistic missiles and how these decisions will greatly affect any potential national or theater missile defense systems under consideration by SDIO/POET.