Methodology for Examining Effects of Arms Control Reduction on Tactical Air Forces. An Example from Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty Analysis.

摘要

In May 1989, NATO proposed that a ceiling be established for Warsaw Pact and NATO tactical aircraft within the ongoing Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) arms reduction negotiations. Specifically, NATO proposed that the ceiling for tactical aircraft be set 15 percent below the then-current NATO level. After the NATO initiative to consider tactical air reductions in the CFE negotiations was announced, Project AIR FORCE was asked by the Commander in Chief of the U.S. Air Forces in Europe to examine a number of issues associated with potential CFE tactical air reductions. Two of the principal issues considered in this research were (1) How should a tactical air reduction agreement be structured; and (2) How should NATO implement such an agreement. To address these issues, we examined the effects of alternative arms control agreements and alternative implementations of those agreements on the tactical air balance in the Atlantic-to-the-Urals (ATTU) region. We also explored the effects of these options on the outcome of a 20-day air-land campaign in NATO's Central Region. Because this study took place before the reunification of Germany and the effective dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, the campaign consisted of a classic Warsaw Pact attack on West Germany.