Coping With Chaos: Promoting Democracy & Regional Stability in the Post-Counterinsurgency Era.

摘要

Regional crises with a humanitarian twist will become a major focus of national security policy in the post-Cold War era. Many LDCs threaten to become ungovernable, overwhelmed by population growth, economic decline and breakdown of social order. Intervention in one form or another may be forced on a world community unwilling to endure the anguished faces of cyclical tragedies. Neither CNN nor pressure group politics will permit national leaders to claim 'we didn't know' to excuse inaction. For the longer term, the $4-5 billion required increase in international community contributions to family planning services in the LDCs will be 'minuscule compared to the benefits. In the medium run, reinforcing regional security organizations to assume greater responsibility is probably our best hope. Regional leaders like Nigeria, India, Brazil and/or Mexico should be encouraged to assume leadership in sub-global security groupings and share the burden of maintaining civilized order among their neighbors that 'go critical.' Bosnia and Liberia show, however, that this will take time and may not always work. UN peacekeeping/peacemaking and unilateral U.S. intervention all have serious drawbacks, although each may be suitable from time to time. Cold War- style counterinsurgency is now 'dead on arrival' and does not warrant resuscitation: as practiced by the U.S. it was largely a failure in its time; is clearly out of step with our times; and could bust the budget to no purpose.