Strategic Implications of the Succession of Kim Jong IL for U.S. Foreign PolicyTowards North Korea

摘要

This study analyzes the strategic implications of the dynastic succession of KimJong IL for U.S. foreign policy towards North Korea. The proliferation of nuclear weapons by North Korea threatens vital U.S. interests in Northeast Asia and challenges U.S. regional and global leadership. In order to properly respond to the North Korean nuclear threat, it is essential to understand the man who will dictate North Korean actions--Kim Jong IL. The study examines Kim Jong Il's background, training, experience, personality, leadership characteristics, and the challenges he will face. The analysis of Kim Jong IL indicates that he is a rational actor who has and will continue to act in a rational manner in pursuit of his desired ends. The framework for analysis is the Strategic Estimate Process. Alternative courses of action are developed using the four elements of national power. The study identifies the strategic implications of probable North Korean actions and recommends appropriate U.S. courses of action on the basis of feasibility, acceptability, and suitability in achieving U.S. objectives in support of U.S. interests.