Prospects on characteristics of the North Korean succession system and its foreign policy in the Post-Kim Jong Il era

摘要

The succession issue that arises under North Korea's Kim Jong Il (Kim Cho'ng-il) system may be handled with Kim Jong Il taking the lead in making the preparations or it could proceed without regard to Kim Jong Il's intention. However, if a sudden change takes place in the North Korean system, including Chairman Kim Jong Il's fall from power, with Kim Jong Il failing to make proper preparations for the succession, the forces that are capable of seizing control of the situation, based on the “party-government-military” structure of dynamics established at the time of the sudden change, will come to power. Considering the process of Kim Il Sung-Kim Jong Il succession, there is a possibility of the power succession taking place, either substantially or institutionally, while Kim Jong Il is alive or after he is dead. A survey of specialists on this issue in the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) on the types of succession showed the following forecasts: (1) 43.5 percent predicted a high possibility of the emergence of a “type of collective leadership after Kim Jong Il's death by natural causes.” (2) 36.4percent saw a high possibility of succession by the second son, Kim Cho'ng-ch'o'l. (3) North Korea's succession outcome, regardless of the type, is expected to place greater importance on the United States than on China. (4) Considering the power base, in the event that Kim Cho'ng-nam-Chang So'ng-t'aek rises to power, they will attach importance to Northeast Asian countries, including China, Japan, and the ROK. In view of the influence Deng Xiaoping's experience in studying in Paris had on his reforms and opening, Kim Cho'ng-un, if he rises to power, may boldly pursue a pro-West and pro-U.S. policy.