Coupling infectious diseases, human preventive behavior, and networks - A conceptual framework for epidemic modeling

摘要

Human-disease interactions involve the transmission of infectious diseases among individuals and the practice of preventive behavior by individuals. Both infectious diseases and preventive behavior diffuse simultaneously through human networks and interact with one another, but few existing models have coupled them together. This article proposes a conceptual framework to fill this knowledge gap and illustrates the model establishment. The conceptual model consists of two networks and two diffusion processes. The two networks include: an infection network that transmits diseases and a communication network that channels inter-personal influence regarding preventive behavior. Both networks are composed of same individuals but different types of interactions. This article further introduces modeling approaches to formulize such a framework, including the individual-based modeling approach, network theory, disease transmission models and behavioral models. An illustrative model was implemented to simulate a coupled-diffusion process during an influenza epidemic. The simulation outcomes suggest that the transmission probability of a disease and the structure of infection network have profound effects on the dynamics of coupled-diffusion. The results imply that current models may underestimate disease transmissibility parameters, because human preventive behavior has not been considered. This issue calls for a new interdisciplinary study that incorporates theories from epidemiology, social science, behavioral science, and health psychology.