The upturn is hesitant and drawn-out, with confidence fragile. The short-term pectedly protracted, against the background of sharp swings in the oil price, sizeable exchange rate shifts and continuing equity price erosion. Forward-looking indicators suggest a deferral of the area-wide upturn until later in 2003. This year, OECD GDP growth is thus likely to only marginally exdeed the 1(3/4) per cent recorded in 2002 (Table I.1). At the same time, regional growth disparties are rising, with the ouput gap set to widen less markedly in the United States than in the euro area.
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