A robust interval-based minimax-regret analysis approach for the identification of optimal water-resources-allocation strategies under uncertainty

摘要

In this study, a robust interval-based minimax-regret analysis (RIMA) method is developed and applied to the identification of optimal water-resources-allocation strategies under uncertainty. The developed RIMA approach can address uncertainties with multiple presentations. Moreover. it can be used for analyzing all possible scenarios associated with different system costs/benefits and risk levels without making assumptions on probabilistic distributions for random variables. In its solution process, an interval-element cost/benefit matrix can be transformed into an interval-element regret matrix, such that the decision makers can identify desired strategies based on inexact minimax regret (IMMR) criterion. Moreover, the fuzzy decision space is delimited into a more robust one through dimensional enlargement of the original fuzzy constraints. The developed method is applied to a case study of planning water resources allocation under uncertainty. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated. They can help decision makers identify desired strategies for water-resources allocation with a compromise between maximized system benefit and minimized system-failure risk.