Land use, water management and future flood risk. (Special Issue: Land use futures.)

摘要

Human activities have profoundly changed the land on which we live. In particular, land use and land management change affect the hydrology that determines flood hazard, water resources (for human and environmental needs) and the transport and dilution of pollutants. It is increasingly recognised that the management of land and water are inextricably linked (e.g. Defra, 2004). "Historical context, state of the science and current management issues" section of this paper addresses the science underlying those linkages, for both rural and urban areas. In "Historical context, state of the science and current management issues" section we discuss future drivers for change and their management implications. Detailed analyses are available for flood risk, from the Foresight Future Flooding project (Evans et al., 2004a,b) and other recent studies, and so we use flooding as an exemplar, with a more limited treatment of water resource and water quality aspects. Finally in "Science needs and developments" section we discuss science needs and likely progress. This paper does not address the important topic of water demand except for some reference to the Environment Agency's Water Resources Strategy for England and Wales (Environment Agency, 2009).