Deciding the future: Informing the development of a decision support system for water resource management by Great Lakes region land use planners.

摘要

The objective of this dissertation is to inform the development of the Great Lakes decision support system by 1) exploring user needs (i.e., data/information, tools, and abilities), 2) revealing differing viewpoints shared by system users, 3) identifying potential barriers and opportunities that exist to exceeding EPA drinking water quality standards, and 4) developing a handful of land use indicators of water quality that could be incorporated into the systems data/information database.;Although 31% of land use planners have access to decision support systems (even seldomly) during the planning process, only 43% have used those systems to better understand the effect of planning on water quality. Thus, research presented chapter 2 of this dissertation makes use of the technology acceptance model theoretical framework to guide both quantitative and qualitative data collection techniques (i.e., survey, Q-methodology, and focus groups), aimed at exploring Great Lakes decision support system data/information, tools, and functionality needs. Current uses of technology and future vision for technology use in the next 5-10 years were also examined. Results from these studies indicate that land use planners and outreach facilitators (i.e., Sea Grant extension staff) throughout the Great Lakes states believe the decision support system should include user defined land use change modeling scenarios, information related to the potential impact of those scenarios on water resources, tools to aid in the identification of natural resource assets within planning jurisdictions, and data/information pertaining to the current water quality status of both surface and groundwater sources. They also see the use of technology in the next 5-10 years increasing by allowing for more public participation in the land use planning process, provide opportunities for remote data gathering using smart phone apps, allow for easier data sharing, and increase the availability of open-source software and prediction models (e.g., land use and climate models).;Guided by the theory of planned behavior, phone interviews were conducted to explore land use planner perceptions of making planning decisions/recommendation with the goal of exceeding current EPA drinking water regulatory standards in chapter 4 of this dissertation. Only 50% of the planners interviewed had some familiarity with the EPA drinking water quality regulatory standards. Beliefs concerning the supportiveness of co-workers, fellow land use planners, community citizen, family, and friends showed mixed results. Common barriers/constraints cited to making planning decisions/recommendations in an effort to not only meet, but exceed, drinking water standards included the lack of funding and political support, as well as the lack of needed expertise to identify ways in which land use planning could be used to impact the quality of drinking water within planning jurisdictions. Opportunities listed included items such as the ability to collaborate with other planning jurisdictions, decreases in stormwater and utility costs, the potential for jurisdictions to receive environmental grants and awards, and the potential to attract new residents into cities. The Great Lakes decision support system may be able to help land use planners overcome some of the barriers and take advantage of the opportunities related to making decisions/recommendations to improve water quality beyond current EPA standards.;Chapter 4 focuses on the development of land use metrics, via GIS analysis, that can serve as indicators of water quality within HUC8's throughout the Great Lakes drainage basin. Future urban growth predictions for the years 2010-2060, following a "business as usual" rate and pattern of urban development were used. Results from these study watersheds predict that by the year 2060, 58 watersheds within the Great Lakes drainage basin have over 50% of their land area significantly altered by anthropogenic land uses (i.e., agriculture production and urban development). For all study years, urban development along Great Lakes shorelines was highest within 15 km from the shoreline, peaking at 5-10 km. In addition, most watersheds within the Great Lakes drainage basin are expected to see increases in the amount of both nitrogen and phosphorus loading into water surface water bodies. The final dissertation chapter emphasizes the need for future research related to 1) potential impacts of land use change on socio-ecological systems, 2) developing a better understand social pressures driving land use planning decisions, and 3) further development of water quality indicators and ecological "tipping point" information. (Abstract shortened by UMI.).