Examining development-related uncertainties for environmental management: strategic planning scenarios in Southern California.

摘要

While landscape planning can help society meet its goals, the ultimate success of today's decisions will be determined, in part, by factors that are difficult to control or to forecast. This study explored how uncertainties related to urban growth in the biologically rich, but rapidly developing area between Los Angeles and San Diego might influence the natural systems of the region and, in turn, contribute to land stewardship pressures. The work was focused through a set of ecological management concerns of the region's military installations. As urbanization removes or degrades habitat, these large and largely un-built properties are increasingly important for the maintenance of regional biodiversity. Looking forward, stakeholders are asking how might growth affect the "rules of engagement" that allow the military to fulfill its mission and native species to continue to exist in the area? A set of scenarios describe possible interactions of macro-scale forces of change and commensurate regional responses; associated analyses locate and quantify the consequences. Each scenario presents unique potential challenges and the set captures a range of alternative management contexts. In examining what the future might become rather than what it should become, this approach provides a geographic vulnerability analysis that can help stakeholders assess the long-term success of pending local environmental plans and, thereby, make decisions that are more robust to uncertainties related to exogenous forces of change.