Comprehensive evaluation of ice disaster risk of the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia Reach in the upper Yellow River

摘要

The Ningxia-Inner Mongolia Reach, in the upper Yellow River, is one of the most serious reaches suffering from ice flood disaster in China. Firstly, according to its characteristics of ice condition evolution and ice disaster, the concept of ice disaster risk of Ningxia-Inner Mongolia Reach was defined, the risk factors of ice disaster were discussed, and the theory and method of "risk identification-risk estimation-risk assessment-risk management'' for the ice disaster risk analysis of Ningxia-Inner Mongolia Reach was proposed. Then, the comprehensive evaluation model of ice disaster risk was established using the projection pursuit, fuzzy clustering and accelerating genetic algorithm method. Finally, the ice disaster risk grade was formulated, and the ice disaster risk of 1991-2010 for the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia Reach was evaluated in this paper. The results show that the application results were consistent with the practical characteristics of water regime, meteorological and ice condition, revealing the rationality of the risk evaluation model. This study aims at enriching and developing the theory and method for the ice disaster risk analysis and providing scientific decision basis for the ice-prevention preparedness of Ningxia-Inner Mongolia Reach, in the upper Yellow River.