Recession Aside, Depending on NYMEX Forward Price Curve Is Mistake

摘要

The spectacular decline in commodity prices during the past several months has caught a number of people by surprise. The expectation had been that "peak oil" and "peak gas" phenomena as well as escalating worldwide demand would maintain, and possibly even push, prices higher. Indeed, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures were presaging a monotonically increasing price path over the next 12 months. In spite of that, North American natural gas prices have fallen by more than 6 a thousand cubic feet (Mcf), approximately 50 percent, in just a few short months. Could this precipitous fall have been anticipated?