FIRST ESTIMATE OF THE 2011/12 COFFEE BALANCE

摘要

Global coffee prices have generally been under pressure since markets peaked in May last year. Intermittent recoveries put aside - with the most notable one occurring in August -prices have dropped continuously as the front month arabica futures in New York fell below the psychological $2 per lb mark on February 16 for the first time since November 2010. Of course, there have been many "outside" influences that contributed to the drop in prices, such as the appreciation of the US dollar, "risk off' sentiment among investors due to the prevailing eurozone debt crisis as well as a darkening outlook for global economic growth prospects. While the latter is also believed to have affected global coffee consumption the most bearish fundamental factor is the upcoming "on-year" crop in Brazil, which is still expected to be excellent and possibly the largest ever though it is not seen anymore as the monster crop of close to or even above 60 mln bags that some sources had predicted late last year.