More of the same in 2005: Barclays

摘要

Gerard Holden, Global Head of Mining and Metals at Barclays Capital Gerard Holden forecast that 2005 would be a very similar year to 2004 in terms of the economic fundamentals related to mining. Holden predicted that four main economic themes in 2005 would prevail, namely: Above average global growth - growth expectations for 2005 were still slightly above trend implying another year of strong commodity demand growth and Barclays now believes that the market is too pessimistic on China's potential commodity demand growth in 2005, while US growth will also continue to exceed expectations; Commodities supply growth - some sector (commodity) specific supply growth will occur in the near term, although for most metals it's a case of a few large growth projects out on the horizon and Barclays doesn't believe that there will be enough supply growth in the short-term to close the large supply-demand gaps which emerged in 2004, thus leading to continued low inventory levels.